Market overview：This week (2024.4.7-2024.4.11), the domestic soda ash market price dropped slightly. As of this Thursday (April 11), the current average market price of light soda ash is 1,901 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last Wednesday's price; the average market price of heavy soda ash is 2,028 yuan/ton, a decrease from last Wednesday's price Decreased by 3 yuan/ton. Recently, domestic soda ash manufacturers have many maintenance plans, and the supply of soda ash has been slightly tightened. Recently, Henan Jinshan soda ash plant has continued to release new production capacity, and the recent increase in production has been obvious. The Alxa soda ash plant has recently undergone maintenance and its load has been reduced, and the supply in the province has declined. Recently, the new order volume of soda ash manufacturers is relatively optimistic, and some soda ash manufacturers have begun to close orders. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users is relatively optimistic, and they continue to need to receive goods in the near future; the photovoltaic glass downstream of heavy alkali is still increasing, and the demand for soda ash continues to increase. On the whole, domestic soda ash supply is still mainly sufficient, and new soda ash production capacity has been released in the near future, which is expected to continue to affect the market; downstream users mainly continue to purchase, and the recent volume of new orders has been considerable, and downstream procurement has tightened.
Supply: As of the 15th week of 2024, according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, China's total domestic soda ash production capacity is 43.15 million tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term suspended production capacity), and the total operating capacity of the equipment is 31.19 million tons (a total of 19 joint soda ash plants, with a total operating capacity of 16.04 million tons; 11 ammonia-alkali plants, with a total operating capacity of 11.59 million tons; and 3 trona plants, with a total operating capacity of 3.56 million tons). Qinghai Development Investment and Qinghai Kunlun soda ash plants continued to have low production this week. Shandong Haitian, Nanfang Alkali Industry, and Tianjin Bohua soda ash plants are still under maintenance. China Salt Kunshan and Jinchang ammonia source soda ash plants continue to be under maintenance. Henan Jinshan soda ash production capacity has begun. The overall soda ash industry operating rate was released at 79.72%. Recently, the new orders of domestic soda ash manufacturers are still mainly sufficient, and there are currently multiple orders for delivery.
On the demand side: the recent volume of new orders from downstream users is acceptable, and the demand for soda ash in some industries has increased. The demand changes of downstream users of light alkali are relatively limited at present. Daily glass, sodium metabisulfite, soda ash, sodium disodium, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries continue to need to receive goods; in the float glass downstream of heavy alkali, the spot inventory of soda ash has not been high recently, and replenishment is the main focus. Photovoltaic glass has recently released new production capacity, and the demand for soda ash is mainly incremental.
Cost: The cost of domestic soda ash industry increased slightly this week. The comprehensive cost of soda ash manufacturers was approximately 1,488.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43%. This week, the sea salt market has partially increased, while the mine salt market has been mainly stable. The off-season market conditions continued, with thermal coal market prices mainly falling. The supply and demand game in the synthetic ammonia market has led to a slight rebound in prices. The price of soda ash raw materials has been mixed, and the overall industry cost has increased slightly.
In terms of profits: the profits of the domestic soda ash industry narrowed slightly this week. Affected by the rising costs of the domestic soda ash industry and the downward market conditions, the profit margin of the overall soda ash industry has been slightly compressed this week. The average gross profit of the soda ash industry this week was approximately 386.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.2%.
In terms of inventory: the domestic soda ash industry's start-up fell slightly this week, soda ash manufacturers' shipments are acceptable, new orders are relatively considerable, and manufacturers' spot inventory is mainly at the following level. As of April 11, according to Baichuan Yingfu's statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies is expected to be approximately 751,200 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from last week.
Futures: The futures price of SA2409, the main contract in the futures market this week, is generally upward. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to news disturbances, changes in the macro environment and the changes in fundamental indicators. (Baichuan Yingfu)
